"BEWARE THE IDES OF MAY"
& HOW TO DEAL WITH LOSSES
By the second week in May, the season starts to change. First, the weather is turning warmer in more and more major league cities. Older players may finally be rounding into shape. Cold weather hitters and cold weather pitchers may find their temporary advantage is over. On the field, changes unrelated to weather are afoot. Managers may revise lineups and change starting rotations, or may alter bullpen roles. Some players are released or sent to the minors. Some managers may find themselves out of jobs. Teams performing unexpectedly well or badly will level off to their expected performance. Julius Caesar was warned about the Ides (middle) of March, and was assassinated then, but gamblers need to "Beware the Ides of May", as many patterns in the current season might be changing.
Mid-May also brings forth anguish from the gamblers who have had a bad year so far. All good handicappers have bad days, bad weeks and bad months. Having a bad season can also happen to anyone, but corrections and changes - similar to what the managers and general managers are trying - can bail out a season before it is too late. For some reason, I guess related to sales, writing about losing is usually ignored in gambling literature. But I have heard so many stories about losses, often coming in early-to-middle May, that some thoughts on dealing with losses are appropriate right now. If you are cruising along on a winning streak, this could still be helpful later.
First, you cannot get back a month of losses in a weekend. Do not call me and ask me how to do that. Taking a big risk under such pressure is usually a prelude to disaster. You have to get it back slower than you lost it. Reduce the size of your bets to a level appropriate to your current bankroll and resolve to get back to break-even.
Go back over the bets and kinds of bets you made. If you are inclined to bet favorites or underdogs or overs or unders, look for patterns in the betting that can be altered, or otherwise changed. Your Friendly Editor has found himself going back and forth over the years, from never betting big favs to betting them often & parlaying them, to avoiding them again. It depends on how well it has been working, for I can usually do OK on the underdog side. Likewise, a flexible approach has helped on other bets: unders are fine some years, but a few years ago unders were an anathema and I went months without betting one.
Getting out of a losing period, for me, means two things must be done. Analyzing the bets and analyzing the teams. I go over every team's stats, asking "do I understand when (and if possible, why) this team is winning and /or losing" If I do not "get it" as to when they win or lose, I may pass on that team for awhile. One year this analysis resulted in refusing to bet on any National League game for over a month, as I just did not understand when many teams would win or lose. It helped!
Sometimes we are just lazy. Finding the small favorite who should be a bigger favorite seems like the hardest task in baseball handicapping, but there are some years when that is the way to go. But it is easier to look for big favs and underdogs, it seems.
Flexibility in approach pays off. Questioning oneself about old prejudices that may be undermining bets is a worthwhile exercise. The Rangers cannot win and the Mariner cannot lose? Who says?
As a chronic pursuer of the live 'dog, I am always asking "when do the good teams lose?" and "when do the bad teams win." Sometimes this is the wrong approach, however. Sometimes there is really no pattern as to when the worst teams may win or when the best ones may lose. In fact, asking the question seems silly. Waiting on that is the only answer. Divide teams by winning percentage: good teams are .550+, mediocre teams are .450-.550, bad teams under .450. If a good or bad team is around .500 in an area, say home v. rights, that is fodder for a possible bet. If a mediocre team has any kind of extreme split, that may be the key. If run scoring matches the W-L record, you may have the why as well as the when.
I hesitate to write this one, because some out-of-control soul will use it to justify what he wants to do anyway, but here goes. Sometimes we over-analyze and play too few games. I am sometimes guilty of this. If you are listing nine possible games and finally betting three and losing two of those, while the eliminated games go 5-1, try the "shotgun" approach. Stop filtering them so finely, bet more games, but bet only half as much. Even with reduced bet sizes this can be nerve-wracking, but can also get you going again, even if going 5-4 or 6-3 does not reduce the deficit spectacularly.
Before you make bets, play "picture the money gone." Imagine that all of the bets you are about to make lose. Don't tell yourself that it cannot happen, actually consider it. The blow to the ego would be bad enough, but if the bankroll cannot take it, you must think about either betting fewer games or betting less per game.
If you play run totals, realize that the number must be within certain parameters. They cannot hang a 5-1/2 on a game, for most bets will be over and if it is an over they get hit - and someone may lose a job. So they put a conservative 7. Same thing with high numbers. Some games are going to be 11-7 or 12-9 but they aren't going to put a 17-1/2 on it, outside Colorado, and take the chance of getting "sided" on a 8-7 score. Take advantage of that where you can. I am always amazed when someone tells me they like the under on a 11-1/2 game or the over on a 7-1/2. My approach is exactly the opposite. Often, but not always, the number tells us where the game is likely headed. Realize that many games are decided in late or extra innings by a run - 4-3, 5-4, 6-5 - ending under a 7.5, 9.5, and 11.5. Remember that if the home club is apt to win, it will probably not bat in the last of the ninth - depriving it of 11% of its chance to score runs. But if the road club is apt to win, the home will get that last at bat, and can add the runs you need to win an over.