PITCHERS WHO OUT-PERFORM THEIR TEAMS AT HOME
This year’s "Homers and Roadies" study found 47 starting pitchers who had been with the same team over the 2004-2006 span. This makes comparison of the team’s overall home or road record with the team’s record in the pitcher’s starts fairly easy to do. What we are looking for are hurlers who out-perform their team in home starts - or who under-perform. Won-loss percentages are compared.For instance, Johann Santana of the Minnesota Twins is the top out-performing Homer this time. The Twins went 148-99, a .599 winning percentage at home, in ‘04-’06. When Santana started at home, they were 45-11, an .804 percentage, a rounded difference of +.204. Santana was the only pitcher this much better than his team - and consider that his own starts are included in the team total!
"HOMERS" Pitchers out-performing their team in home games, 2004-06: Ex-team in ( )
| Pitcher, | Team | win% | %v.team% |
| Santana, | MIN | .804 | +.204 |
| Halladay, | TOR | .735 | +.188 |
| Francis, | COL | .688 | +.185 |
| Zambrano, | CHC | .640 | +.152 |
| Harden, | OAK | .742 | +.144 |
| Smoltz, | ATL | .722 | +.142 |
| Moyer, | PHI (SEA) | .635 | +.139 |
| Santana, | LAA | .697 | +.135 |
| Maroth, | DET | .629 | +.115 |
| Schmidt, | LAA (SFO) | .633 | +.112 |
| Webb, | ARI | 531 | +.103 |
| Schilling, | BOS | .750 | +.102 |
| Oswalt, | HOU | .698 | +.098 |
| Peavy, | SDG | .620 | +.087 |
| Buehrle, | CHX | .672 | +.082 |
These were the starters with .080 or greater percentage gain v. their team. Only one of these pitchers, Moyer, was traded - teams tend to keep pitchers who give them great chances to win before the home crowds. The last time we did this study, 2004, Halladay, Schmidt and Oswalt landed on the "Homers" list, while Wakefield, then as now, appeared on the under-achiever list (below)
As pitchers are selected for success, those who under-perform are less likely to be kept on the team, and are often traded, sent to the bullpen or minors, or released. So there are fewer of them who stay on the same team for three years, and the W-L percentage differences are smaller.
Under-Achievers 2004-2006 at home:
| Pitcher, | Team | win% | %v.team% |
| Suppan, | MIL (STL) | .556 | -.078 |
| Robertson, | DET | .458 | -.056 |
| Myers, | PHI | .478 | -.053 |
| Wakefield, | BOS | .596 | -.052 |
| Zito, | SFO (OAK) | .547 | -.050 |
| Cook, | COL | .455 | -.048 |
| Kazmir, | TAM | .464 | -.040 |
Again, a list of fairly good pitchers. Suppan worked for the Cardinals, 166-96 for .634, whch made his 30-24 record, .556, look small. The Red Sox were a 28-19 team with Wakefield pitching, but they were 162-88 overall at home (post-season included in all calculations), for .648.
Taking a look through the Pitching Aces ‘07 book, we find that the Twins were +$25.20 at home with Santana, at $1 risked per game. The Blue Jays were up +$8.70 when Halladay worked, the Rockies with Francis were ahead +$11.05, the Cubs were at +$2.65 with Zambrano, The A’s were +$10.45 with Harden, the Braves +$11.40 with Smoltz at home, Seattle +$12.15 with Moyer at home. Wakefield as a home starter was -$2.05 for Boston, Suppan -$6.45 for St. Louis. These line totals and much, much more are in our Aces book, of which there are only a few left.
Pitchers Included in 2007 Homers & Roadies Study:
AL: Cabrera, Bedard, Trachsel, Wakefield, Schilling, Buehrle, Garland, Sabathia, Westbrook, Lee, Bonderman, Maroth, Robertson, Lackey, Colon, Santana (both, LAA & MIN), Mussina, Harden, Kazmir, Halladay ...
NL: Webb, DDavis, Smoltz, Zambrano, Lilly, Harang, Cook, Francis, RLopez, Willis, Oswalt, Jennings, Wolf, Schmidt, Sheets, Capuano, Suppan, Glavine, Myers, Moyer, Armas, Carpenter, Peavy, Zito, Lowry, Patterson ...